Predicting the 2026 Middle East Business Environment

Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly considered as a combination year, in which diversification-led growth becomes more deeply ingrained in the region's economic design, lowering dependence on hydrocarbons and increasing resilience to external shocks. Forecasts from major organizations broadly converge on a stronger GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic demand, continued non-oil expansion, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The World Bank, on the other hand, jobs 3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF likewise sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent usually in 2025, reflecting a shift toward more favorable general conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks international growth reducing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would position the region materially ahead of the world average and slightly above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, enhancing the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that regional danger conditions remain included and reform momentum holds.

Information from the GCC Statistical Center show that non-oil sectors currently account for more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has continued to rise as governments broaden investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity throughout the GCC is predicted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and rising investment in technology and AI-related facilities.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

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Public-sector investment and reform stay central to sustaining this trend. Policy measures aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, reducing foreign ownership guidelines, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil expansion and reduce the area's direct exposure to oil cost volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer control the development outlook, oil profits are expected to play a supportive role in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Nevertheless, oil supply is forecast to rise once again in the second half of the year, with a complete relaxing of remaining production caps likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly helpful of development. Inflation is expected to stay low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the area in 2026. Stable prices are helping maintain genuine family earnings and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics anticipates to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.